It’s Official: U.S. Social Networking Sites See Slow Down
I just got a hold of the ComScore numbers for U.S. social networking sites, and it ain’t pretty folks. (See an abridged version of the chart below this post.) After peaking in October of 2007 with 71.9 million users, MySpace, the leading social network, has seen its audience fall back to around 68.9 million unique visitors. December saw no growth over November, though visitors were up 13% from last December.
More alarming are the engagement metrics. Since December 2006, when MySpace engagement peaked at about 234 minutes spent per visitor, time spent on the site has dropped consistently throughout the year. In December, time spent per visitor saw its biggest month-to-month drop, of about 8.5%, to 179 minutes per visitor per month, down from 196 minutes in November. That equates to a 24% year-over-year drop.
But the pain is not just a MySpace problem. It seems to be an industry-wide issue. The total audience of U.S. social networks seems to be stuck at a low-to-mid-single digit growth rate, while the engagment metrics are falling for just about everyone. Time spent on Bebo.com has been sliced in half over the last four months, while Friendster’s time spent has plummeted nearly 75% in the same time period. Overall, minutes spent per site fell 5% in December 2007 compared to the year-ago period.
HOW TO BUY CREATIVE CAPITAL: To pre-order Creative Capital and get a 34% discount, click here and go to Amazon
Even Web darling Facebook can’t buck the entire trend. The good news for Zuckerberg & Co. is that the company continues to grow its U.S. audience. In December, Facebook claimed abut 35 million visitors, almost double its year-ago audience of 19 million. The bad news is that Facebook’s engagement is down sequentially, and only up 13% year-over year.
So what does this all mean? For starters, slowing and/or decling growth will make it harder to generate sales and profit growth from these sites. That will put more pressure on the advertising programs to deliver results. Of course, they could offset the declines through overseas gains. But so far, advertisers have been leary of marketing on social networking sites outside of the U.S.
All eyes will be on the News Corp. earning announcement on Feb. 4 at 4pm. Then we’ll find out how the slowing growth has actually impacted the sales and profit potential of these sites. My hunch is that the numbers won’t be as rosy as the company would like.
| Average Minutes per Visitor | Dec-06 | Jan-07 | Feb-07 | Oct-07 | Nov-07 | Dec-07 | ||
| Total Internet : Total Audience | 1,764.90 | 1,746.90 | 1,721.90 | 1,817.70 | 1,732.70 | 1,684.90 | ||
| MYSPACE.COM | 234.6 | 227.5 | 184.8 | 192.9 | 196 | 179.3 | ||
| BEBO.COM | 213.3 | 417 | 302.7 | 231.8 | 246.8 | 173.9 | ||
| FACEBOOK.COM | 150.4 | 170.2 | 199.9 | 195.6 | 189.7 | 169.4 | ||
| HI5.COM | 22.7 | 34 | 28.1 | 53.6 | 62.5 | 56.6 | ||
| FRIENDSTER.COM | 39.5 | 38.6 | 31.5 | 109.2 | 69.8 | 39.2 | ||
| Windows Live Spaces | 17.3 | 14.6 | 17.2 | 14 | 13.2 | 14.9 | ||
| LINKEDIN.COM | 8 | 6.7 | 5 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 7.1 | ||
| Unique Visitors (000) | Dec-06 | Jan-07 | Feb-07 | Oct-07 | Nov-07 | Dec-07 | ||
| Total Internet : Total Audience | 174,199 | 175,559 | 175,653 | 182,206 | 182,362 | 183,619 | ||
| MYSPACE.COM | 60,887 | 61,524 | 64,443 | 71,982 | 68,746 | 68,905 | ||
| FACEBOOK.COM | 19,105 | 18,961 | 16,737 | 32,910 | 33,660 | 34,658 | ||
| Windows Live Spaces | 9,589 | 9,057 | 8,320 | 9,854 | 9,884 | 8,912 | ||
| BEBO.COM | 2,977 | 3,602 | 2,641 | 4,442 | 3,674 | 4,279 | ||
| LINKEDIN.COM | 872 | 1,122 | 1,211 | 2,782 | 2,784 | 2,868 | ||
| HI5.COM | 3,029 | 2,299 | 2,640 | 2,454 | 2,165 | 2,483 | ||
| FRIENDSTER.COM | 1,103 | 1,288 | 1,379 | 1,668 | 1,687 | 1,791 |
HOW TO BUY CREATIVE CAPITAL: To pre-order Creative Capital and get a 34% discount, click here and go to Amazon
Tags: Bebo.com, Facebook, Friendster, Mark Zuckerberg, MySpace, News Corp., social networking sites
January 30, 2008 at 8:44 pm
[...] Kafka’s post was based on another post by Business Week’s Spencer Ante who has an early look at the Comscore numbers. While Facebook had fantastic growth in their overall user base, the total [...]
January 31, 2008 at 12:18 am
It looks like the same users are just shifting around….leaving myspace…etc.
I don’t think we’ll see the growth numbers we’ve seen lately….it will just be healthy standard growth from here on out.
Social networks are here to stay.
January 31, 2008 at 4:00 am
I think there’s a natural audience for social networks, and the people will find each other. Many people try social networks, getting lumped into the growth stats, but then find they don’t go back very often. The level of engagement is difficult to achieve. If you stay on a social network, it;s because there is a real reason to be there: business, or perhaps passion.
January 31, 2008 at 10:55 am
just the fad du jour -
which is French for “funded by others with more money than sense”
social networking sites are driven by bored tweens/teens and once older people start popping in - they move on. just like the club scene in nYc’s halcyon days. all the best clubs were gay but once straights found out and showed up, the gay community moved on and started a new one.
wash, rinse, repeat.
January 31, 2008 at 3:47 pm
[...] Creative Capital（此链接国内需代理）拿到了两组Comscore提供的美国几家主流社群网站的数据，其一是从06年12月到07年12月的月度独立访问用户数，其二是这段时间的用户月度使用时间（用户黏度）。这两幅图经过了Valleywag的整理，我们放在下面一一讨论。首先看看月度独立用户的情况。 [...]
January 31, 2008 at 4:09 pm
I have no idea what the post above me says since I don’t read Chinese. But I am thrilled that Creative Capital is attracting a global audience!!!
January 31, 2008 at 4:54 pm
It’s possible that engagement is waning, but for online communities, seasonal fluctuations are a fact of life. Traffic’s lower in November and December than in October? That’s hardly surprising, giving that November is a 30 month day with 5 weekends (always bad for community traffic) and December is the slowest month of the year. Before announcing the death of MySpace, wait to see what happens with January traffic.
January 31, 2008 at 5:15 pm
[...] The Reigster has penned a fairly critical piece about the state of social networking, based on some recent data from comScore that shows user engagement (the amount of time people spend on a site) falling at a number of [...]
January 31, 2008 at 5:23 pm
[...] then get on with your life, occasionally dropping in to respond to a message or see some photos that have been posted Find the full research here [...]
January 31, 2008 at 5:26 pm
[...] network, except for Facebook. However, even though Facebook keeps growing (though not rapidly), its user engagement has been down lately. Even though the number of users doubled over the last year, the people who are joining now are [...]
January 31, 2008 at 6:22 pm
[...] a bit of trouble keeping folks around: comScore has provided BusinessWeek’s Spencer Ante with user engagement numbers — time spent on each site, per month, per visitor — for a slew of social networks over [...]
January 31, 2008 at 7:12 pm
I spend no time on MySpace anymore, and find things like the New York Times IQ Quiz to be a good reason to visit my Facebook account every day. Healthy competition is a good way to attract repeat, loyal users.
January 31, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Interesting to compare the stats for LinkedIn v Facebook. It’s not an apples/oranges comparison.
My gut tells me that Facebook’s “avg minutes” metric is plummenting because of Application fatigue.
My gut also tells me that massive numbers of new LinkedIn users don’t yet have big enough networks to spend a great deal of time on the site — but the larger your extended network is, the more value you get.
Long haul, I see LinkedIn as being the winner. Clearer focus, and definitely more control from the standpoint of reaping what you put into it.
January 31, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Right on RH.
On some level, at least as far as the UV graph shows, it’s interesting the times of year chosen are the times first when kids are on school vacations and just getting back to school in Jan. and Feb.
Further, the last 3 months are when students are strong in Oct, then studying and on vacation in Nov and Dec. So of course they go up in the three ‘07 months and then down in the three ‘08 months.
We saw the same.
January 31, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Increasingly, social networks with no particular focus will decline since they won’t succeed in duplicating people’s real networks. I think some of the decline will come from greedy attempts to capitalize on people’s personal info, and users will reject that more and more. Niche networks will thrive such as those that play to people’s special interests, be it politics, hobbies, sports, arts, etc. People will always want to network with others with common interests.
January 31, 2008 at 8:22 pm
The slowdown is expected, as the world has a finite number of people, especially those that are sophisticated enough to use a computer. I think Facebook and other sites like it do provide a meaningful virtual environment to keep in touch with true friends (usually, a handful of them). But also, they may be helpful in enabling consumer-to-consumer activities (like ebay) that are not commerce oriented at the outset. For example, you might start interacting with a few friends about a specifict topic and end up launching an entrepreneurial venture after several weeks of communicating through facebook and/or other means. I don’t think these apps are a fad, but that’s a mortal’s opinion. One can always debate valuation, but in the end only the one who invested will end up knowing if it was worth it.
January 31, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Lots of my paragliding friends worldwide have joined Facebook and I enjoy getting to know other facets of their lives beyond our interactions while paragliding around the world. It is a fun way to stay connected in between paragliding competitions when we are together for a week at a time. That said I have no time or interest in most off the apps on Facebook and did not like the opt out way that Beacon was implemented. I think the faddish gimicky usage of social sites will decline and the more valuable aspects will grow as people use social networks to share events, videos, photos, books, blogs etc.
January 31, 2008 at 9:59 pm
Impnow’s comment about niche social networks is on point. I deleted my MySpace almost a year ago. I was bored silly and inundated with flotsam/jetsam. My favorite is 43things.com. It’s very focused. I’d also like to see the network potential of interest specific sitse such as Netflix, Pandora.com and others become much stronger.
January 31, 2008 at 10:36 pm
December does slow down as access to broadband decreases when this audience goes home for break. They also spend time w/family and friends ‘offline’ (wateva!).
I do believe that people have gotten bored of social networks, which accounts for FB and now MySpace and others opening their networks to 3rd party applications (i.e. OpenSocial) to keep people on their sites (remember the old buzzword “sticky”?).
Social Networks will either go niche or revolve around something to do instead of hope that people find interest in hyperlinking between people they don’t know in search of good content and people.
January 31, 2008 at 10:46 pm
[...] can check out all the stats here at Creative Capital. What you’ll find is that the average length of time users spend on all of the [...]
January 31, 2008 at 11:28 pm
[...] Creative Capitol: But the pain is not just a MySpace problem. It seems to be an industry-wide issue. The total [...]
January 31, 2008 at 11:42 pm
[...] to Creative Capital, and as reported elsewhere, time spent on social networking sites is declining, as people appear to [...]
January 31, 2008 at 11:47 pm
[...] Excerpt: … But the pain is not just a MySpace problem. It seems to be an industry-wide issue. The total audience of U.S. social networks seems to be stuck at a low-to-mid-single digit growth rate, while the engagment metrics are falling for just about everyone. Time spent on Bebo.com has been sliced in half over the last four months, while Friendster’s time spent has plummeted nearly 75% in the same time period. Overall, minutes spent per site fell 5% in December 2007 compared to the year-ago period. Read full article here [...]
January 31, 2008 at 11:54 pm
[...] The Reigster has penned a fairly critical piece about the state of social networking, based on some recent data from comScore that shows user engagement (the amount of time people spend on a site) falling at a number of [...]
February 1, 2008 at 12:00 am
The two graphs are of the overall search volume (top) and the news reference volume (below) for three keywords: (1) social bookmarking, (2) social networking, and (3) blogging.
Do you see what I see?
If you noticed that the trend on the red line - social networking - is gaining momentum, you’re paying attention.
http://maintainwealth.blogspot.com/2008/01/marketing-tool-you-probably-never.html
February 1, 2008 at 12:56 am
Keep Facebook Pure… It should not be a spamming tool. Unfortunately, most apps are an excuse to spam, and lead in to commercial services. This dilutes the core offering of Facebook, as a social (re)discovery tool.
Now, I’m reluctant to respond to notifications, and check back infrequently. I’d like the old Facebook back.
If you’re reading this, then it’s quite likely that you’ll be interested in joining the “Keep Facebook Pure” group… unless, that is, you’ve already given up? :o)
February 1, 2008 at 1:18 am
It looks like people may be actually getting a life opposed to trying to live one through their computers. About time!! Go out and experience the word opposed to listenning to what others fantasize the world to be ….
February 1, 2008 at 1:30 am
I wish this meant the death of MySpace. One can hope.
February 1, 2008 at 1:55 am
[...] You can survey the full numerical horror for youself here at Creative Capital. [...]
February 1, 2008 at 4:27 am
[...] Read the rest of this post Print Sphere Comment Tagged: social networks, Facebook, MySpace | permalink [...]
February 1, 2008 at 5:19 am
[...] quiz invitation (and seventy others) from lonely Japanese friends on Facebook, I stumbled upon some numbers from ComScore via Creative [...]
February 1, 2008 at 6:33 am
[...] It’s Official: U.S. Social Networking Sites See Slow Down Sin comentarios| Compártelo | Escrito a las 12:33 am Jose Calleja | Leer más de: Internet, Redes Sociales, Sociedad [...]
February 1, 2008 at 6:55 am
In this ephemeral and day by day collapsing world, where miles are trudged upon in blinking of eyes, cars fantasize people these days like every bit of a delicious cheese burger. However, purchasing one’s dream car is an arduous task. It takes the desire, the perfect glance at the perfect car and most importantly, the required finance to make it your own. But, do you need to worry when market is inundated with a number of lenders? The answer is no and Personal car loans are the perfect answers to your burning desire if you are a little short on cash.To Know more about cheap car loans, unsecured car loans, car loan in the uk, used car loan uk visit http://www.cheapcarloansuk.org.uk
February 1, 2008 at 8:00 am
[...] Zwar steigt die Zahl der Mitglieder weiter an, aber die User “verweilen” eben nicht mehr so lange. Die Kritiker fühlen sich bestätigt und zweifeln schon am Funktionsprinzip von Social [...]
February 1, 2008 at 8:50 am
Does anyone remember the BBS of the 90’s? Where people hung out; some times all day. Waiting around in a mall for people to come and go. Discuss things like sub woofers! What? Web 2.0 or are we up to ummm Web 9.2 or something.
Social networking is not new my friend. A book published in 1999 called ¨Net Worth¨ Hagel and Singer, described a road map for businesses called “Infomediaries” these are Facebook, Myspace etc. These are trusted repositories of information, detailed information. Exchange centers of information traded for in the currency of trust.
Facebook with Beacon and Myspace with spammer trash flying around, have depleted us of this trust.
These are not areas of waste lands and the numbers are showing a zero sum game. These people arent fleeing to off-line, they are gathering again, splintering and reforming. Social anthropology studies accelerated. Split, morph and recombine.
Geo Cities the grand father to these newbies had all these and more, broadband increased and new money poured. The world will change and evolve. TV… that will never stick!
hahahaha
February 1, 2008 at 9:18 am
I, myself am getting tired of these social networking sites…. I think I’ll just go back to ‘’social networking’ in real life with real people!
February 1, 2008 at 12:55 pm
I suspect the reduction of online time over the last year is a lot to do with workplaces increasingly blocking them.
February 1, 2008 at 2:58 pm
[...] Fakt ist: laut neuen Zahlen von comScore bommt der Social Network-Bereich. [...]
February 1, 2008 at 3:22 pm
“I, myself am getting tired of these social networking sites…. I think I’ll just go back to ‘’social networking’ in real life with real people!”
There you go.
February 1, 2008 at 4:05 pm
[...] It’s Official: U.S. Social Networking Sites See Slow Down I just got a hold of the ComScore numbers for U.S. social networking sites, and it ain’t pretty folks. (See an […] [...]
February 1, 2008 at 6:48 pm
[...] The numbers are here. [...]
February 1, 2008 at 8:28 pm
[...] Olivier nous fait remarquer que MySpace perdrait aussi des usagers. Pas des tonnes, mais la croissance exponentielle semble terminée. Tags : facebook, microsoft, [...]
February 1, 2008 at 8:31 pm
[...] comScore data shows that use of social networking sites in the U.S. is slowing. People haven’t abandoned these things, of course, but there was an actual decline, rather [...]
February 1, 2008 at 9:03 pm
[...] data for the United States was released recently and has set bloggers all a buzz. Most seem to crying out about how online social networks are slowing down, because growth on several of the largest [...]
February 1, 2008 at 9:10 pm
[...] data for the United States was released recently and has set bloggers all a buzz. Most seem to crying out about how online social networks are slowing down, because growth on several of the largest [...]
February 3, 2008 at 8:25 pm
[...] Creative Capital… I just got a hold of the ComScore numbers for U.S. social networking sites, and it ain’t [...]
February 4, 2008 at 7:39 am
[...] up that, maybe users aren’t that interested in Facebook and MySpace anymore. Writes the Creative Capital Blog: But the pain is not just a MySpace problem. It seems to be an industry-wide issue. The total [...]
February 4, 2008 at 3:36 pm
[...] Social networking sites showing steady declines. [...]
February 5, 2008 at 2:33 pm
[...] πως τα πράγματα για τα social networking sites αρχίζουν να μην πηγαίνουν καλά. Για να δούμε ποιο θα είναι το “next big thing”. Γιατί [...]
February 5, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Many of these “trends” are being driven by teens. A fickle lot they are. And since so many kids (and adults) get themselves in to trouble with their friends and parents (and pediphils!) with sites like Facebook, it only stands to reason that as the full costs are realized, demand would decrease.
This isn’t limited to teens. Look at the computer industry. Cult of Google, Cult of Apple, Cult of Linux, Cult of Microsoft (or anti-Microsoft for that matter), Cult of Java, Cult of Ruby (the anti-Java), Cult of AJAX. And the dead or dying cults of JSP, Java (the new cobol), anti-Microsoft (yep, people are even starting to realize that Microsoft isn’t as bad as Apple and friends says they are.)
Whoever said humans make rational choices doesn’t understand humanity…or marketing.
And don’t get me started on Gartner (a.k.a., “Fads R Us”
Has anyone ever studied how successful their predictions are?
February 5, 2008 at 4:26 pm
[...] was reading that Register article on the downward trend of the big social networks. It uses some comscore numbers that show that time spent on the networks (MySpace, Bebo & co.) is down. Leaving aside that [...]
February 6, 2008 at 1:01 am
[...] Ξεφουσκώνουν τα Social Networking Websites; [...]
February 6, 2008 at 6:34 am
[...] There’s a growing chorus of people who rightly observe that social networking sites will begin morphing into something even greater this year. A report from The Economist eloquently argues over on Chris Saad’s blog that stand alone social networks will dissolve. It’s not just an opinion. MySpace’s growth seems to have stalled, according to Creative Capital’s coverage of ComScore numbers. [...]
February 6, 2008 at 1:25 pm
[...] Δημοσιεύθηκε από A Lord of the Night στο Φεβρουάριος 6, 2008 http://creativecapital.wordpress.com/2008/01/29/its-official-us-social-networking-sites-see-slow-dow... [...]
February 7, 2008 at 3:29 am
[...] So apparently social networks like MySpace and Facebook are on the decline. Is this an early sign of the end of social networks? What does this mean for the global community, and the global economy? Social networks changed the world. Will their recession change it even more? [...]
February 7, 2008 at 4:28 am
[...] latest numbers from comScore indicate that social networks are witnessing a dramatic downshift in user engagement. Some folks [...]
February 7, 2008 at 9:17 am
[...] Средняя продолжительность времени, которое пользователи проводят на сайтах первой тройки социальных сетей, активно сокращается. У Bebo, MySpace и Facebook произошло снижение двузначными цифрами в последний месяц 2007 года. Конечно, можно сделать скидку на сезонный спад, когда люди видятся со своими настоящими друзьями и семьей, но тренд на снижение уже четко прослеживается. Для защитников социальных сетей — статистика по сравнению с предыдущим годом даже более удручающая. Bebo и MySpace также испытали спад в тот же период в 2006 году, причем сайт Мердока — на 24%. Правда, Facebook в этот период был на подъеме, но тем не менее очень сильно не дотягивал до пика в середине 2007 года, когда нельзя было сдвинуться с места, чтобы не наткнуться на сюжет в новостях или на телевидении, который бы не пытался выяснить “Куда же движется Facebook?” Весь цифровой кошмар вы можете увидеть сами на странице Creative Capital здесь [...]
February 11, 2008 at 3:29 am
Good info. and read. Will be back soon to read more of your information.
Thanks,
Dean
February 11, 2008 at 7:30 pm
[...] like MySpace and Facebook are in terminal decline got excited last month. Then, Comscore numbers surfaced that showed social network users had spent relatively less time on sites in December and clicked on [...]
February 12, 2008 at 10:09 am
[...] Alle sind überrascht, entsetzt, verzweifelt (zutreffendes bitte ankreuzen), aber die Wahrheit, wie sie hier gepostet wurde, lässt sich nicht länger leugnen: Soziale Netzwerke sind eine Zeitlang interessant, verlieren [...]
February 12, 2008 at 10:58 pm
[...] a few of us round the office started to speculate that Facebook had hit its peak. Now ComScore have released figures that show a wider trend in social [...]
February 17, 2008 at 4:18 pm
[...] has not become a social norm — it remains the passion (or addiction) of a few. Furthermore, the average time users spend on social networking sites is on the decline, and the once explosive gr…. In fact, a certain Facebook fatigue has set in, and users (including, reportedly, Bill Gates) are [...]
February 19, 2008 at 8:46 pm
[...] 2006, עמד מספר הדקות הממוצע של כל חבר במייספייס על 234 דקות (!), בדצמבר המספר צנח ל-179 דקות אך בינואר עלה שוב ל-203 [...]
February 25, 2008 at 7:52 pm
[...] Social networking sites slow down [...]
March 10, 2008 at 3:40 pm
[...] länger erkennbar: Viele soziale Netzwerke können zwar ihre Reichweite weiter ausbauen, aber die durchschnittliche Verweildauer geht mit jedem weiteren Nutzer zurück. Denn viele Menschen, vor allem Jugendliche, sind heute parallel in mehreren Netzwerken angemeldet. [...]
March 11, 2008 at 9:57 pm
[...] so gut, jedoch verringert sich dadruch auch die Besucherzeit und die Anzahl der Besuche auf den einzelnen Plattformen was das ausschlaggebende ist. Sprich für [...]
March 12, 2008 at 10:59 am
Social Networks: Sinkt der Stern?
Social Network Portale wie MySpace, StudiVZ oder Xing sind in den Zeiten des Web 2.0 die Garanten für Userinteraktion und Zugang zu Usergruppen. Allerdings geben die neusten Zahlen Anlass zur Besorgnis: der Trend nach oben scheint gebrochen.
So be…
March 31, 2008 at 8:27 am
[...] U.S. Social Networking Sites See Slow Down. Esther Dyson’s opinion: “Google & Microsoft Are So Yesterday”. The future of advertising lies not in search advertising, no matter how sophisticated behavioral targeting gets - it’s in social networks. [...]
March 31, 2008 at 7:53 pm
[...] It’s Official: U.S. Social Networking Sites See Slow Down [...]
April 3, 2008 at 3:45 pm
[...] Creative Capitol: But the pain is not just a MySpace problem. It seems to be an industry-wide issue. The total [...]
April 4, 2008 at 1:58 am
[...] like Myspace, or Facebook. Recent numbers are showing that participation in these sorts of sites is beginning to wane (UK numbers here). Users are spending less and less time obsessively checking their Myspace page [...]
April 5, 2008 at 3:34 pm
[...] we look at the numbers, year-over-year, for the major social networking sites (which you can do here, near the bottom of the page), there are some interesting [...]
April 6, 2008 at 6:25 pm
[...] It’s Official: U.S. Social Networking Sites See Slow Down [...]
April 10, 2008 at 9:11 am
[...] hladan tuš je u SAD protumačeno istraživanje kompanije ComScore da se potvrđuje pad posećenosti tri najveća social networking sajta (Facebook, MySpace, Bebo), [...]