Top 10 Potential Tech Surprises for 2008

Arnie Berman, the Chief Technology Strategist and head of telecom/media/technology research at SG Cowen, is one of the more creative tech analysts working on Wall Street today. I’ve been a long-time fan of his work, going back to when he was at Soundview. On January 14, Berman and the TMT team released their “Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2008.” It’s a really clever report filled with contrarian predictions. Among my favorite:

* Telcos will capture 20% to 25% share of the TV market in the homes they pass with Internet connections, compared to the consensus view of 3% to 5%, converging valuations of telecom and cable companies.

* A slowing economy slams On Demand software providers such as Salesforce.com and Concur, sending shares down as much as 30% to 50%.

* Corporations begin to adopt Google Apps Premium, driving 10% to 20% appreciaiton in the search giant’s stock.

What are your top surprise predictions?

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